By – Elections Litmus Test CCC Passed, As Mnangagwa Mwonzora Failed – Analysts

Political analysts have said the electorate expressed faith in Citizens Coalition for Change (CCC) with the resounding victory the 62 day old party won against two parties whose age are almost close to a century when added together.

Zanu Pf is a culmination of Formerly Zapu and Zanu which became one in 1987 at the signing of the unity accord between the late President Robert Mugabe and his late deputy Father Zimbabwe Joshua Mqabuko Nyongolo Nkomo.

Zanu had Zanla as it’s military wing whilst Zapu had Zipra as its military wing and both liberation parties date back to the 50’s and 60’s which however where born out of other older movements.

The weekends CCC was a blow for both President Emmerson Mnangagwa and Mwonzora who were accused of plotting the downfall of the opposition.

Chamisa’s CCC win fired warning shots for a possible showdown with Mnangagwa in 2023.

Mnangagwa will be seeking his second term after taking over the country in a military coup in 2017.

“It is more than just a by-election. It’s a test between the two. The MPs’ recall was obviously illegal. It is a statement of fact on the part of CCC but a statement of failure for Mwonzora and Mnangagwa,” one analyst Ibbo Mandaza was quoted in the run-up to the bye election polls.

He added: “A CCC win would be a warning to Mnangagwa to say his days are numbered.”

Indeed that message was emphatic following the resounding victory Chamisa’s party had over old adversaries.

The by-elections were a serious test of CCC’s potential to mount a serious challenge to Zanu-PF.

“This by-election is a test of the potential of CCC as a brand and its ability to mount a serious challenge to Zanu PF. Whilst CCC may make inroads into Zanu-PF strongholds it will be difficult currently to dislodge the Zanu-PF rural vote. A bit more time and strategy beyond the by-elections is needed,” a Bulawayo based analyst Dumisani Nkomo was also quoted.

“Indeed these elections are not mere by-elections; they are a dress rehearsal for the 2023 elections.”

To sink or swim was the question in Saturday’s by-elections as the opposition Citizens’ Coalition for Change (CCC) passed with flying colours a stern test of political strength where there was everything to fight for in a vote largely viewed as a precursor of the watershed 2023 polls.

Out of the twenty-eight seats up for grabs over the weekend the CCC grabbed the vacant urban constituencies where the party enjoys considerable support crushing Zanu Pf and Mwonzora’s Mdc-A clinching 19 out of 28.

This election came at a time Zimbabwe was witnessing the rebirth of opposition politics, which two months ago had taken a nosedive amid an onslaught by the authorities to create a one-party state.

Although CCC is just two months old, its popularity was tested in these polls. The win cemented the CCC as the legitimate opposition following months of political combat with MDC-T leader Douglas Mwonzora who now leads a doomed ship evidenced by his loss in every constituency he fielded any candidate.

Zanu-PF claims to have made major strides to reclaim urban seats with Epworth and Mutasa South formerly opposition going to the ruling party. But only Mwonzora Mdc-A can be blamed as Chamisa’s new party romped to victory on its first election.The party has perennially lost to the opposition since 2000. The by-elections served to test the party’s strength in urban areas. A win in some urban centres would have been considered a massive boost ahead of 2023 for ZanuPF but it was only after reported vote rigging incidents took place.

Even losing by small margins will be considered a boost for the ruling party, but the CCC landslide victories was testimony of its strength.

Zanu-PF retained most of its rural seats, but the effectiveness of CCC’s rural mobilisation drive cannot be under scrutiny as it was a game changer with close encounters against ZanuPF.

Had CCC won some seats previously held by Zanu-PF, it will have confirmed that the party has made inroads in rural areas.

A slimmer winning margin for Zanu-PF in rural settings like Gokwe Central, Murehwa South, Chivi South and Mwenezi East was worrisome for ZanuPF ahead of next year’s polls as this entails major inroads for the opposition.

While winning is the major goal of both parties, winning margins was more crucial. Slimmer wins for the opposition in urban areas might have rattled the CCC as it would mean that Zanu-PF has made major inroads.

A win for Zanu-PF in Epworth an urban constituency came as a shocker, analysts say.

President Emmerson Mnangagwa’s Zanu-PF which was looking to win the Kwekwe Central seat which fell vacant following the death of the National Patriotic Front’s Masango Matambanadzo in 2020, failed this test which CCC won instead.

Kwekwe proved a volatile constituency during the campaign period after CCC member Mboneni Ncube was killed while 22 were injured when Zanu-PF militants, known as Al-Shabaab descended on the rally.

This election came amid massive infighting in Zanu-PF with Mnangagwa’s allies in the Midlands accused of destabilising the party in his political citadel.

With the CCC expected to retain urban constituencies after a Parliamentary bloodbath between 2020 and 2021 when MDC-T leader Douglas Mwonzora recalled MPs, analysts expressed concern over the lack of an even playing field.

“The unlevel playing field will be a major factor to deter prospective CCC supporters. It will be without doubt. The voters’ roll is a key element in any election and the voters’ roll will be decisive. The integrity and quality of the voters’ roll will be contested, whatever the outcome,” political analyst Eldred Masunungure said toward the elections.

Zimbabwe’s newest opposition party, the Citizens’ Coalition for Change fared better than all its rivals.

“Citizens came together and achieved a resounding victory for the movement,” said CCC spokesperson Fadzayi Mahere after the results were announced.

The long-awaited by-elections were held for parliamentary and local government seats to fill spots that had been vacant nearly two years. More than 100 local council positions were up on the ballot. The government had postponed the polls in 2020 due to Covid-19.

CCC party leader Nelson Chamisa set up his own party at the end of January after breaking with the Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) in a legal battle over internal politics. The MDC gained no seats in the by-election.

Intimidation, vote-buying
Independent election observers assert that the by-elections were tainted by intimidation and vote-buying. CCC members allege that the ruling party had banned some rallies because there wasn’t enough police to man the event.

Chamisa also said that police had tried to intimidate supporters from going to rallies over the two-month campaign period.

A CCC member was killed with a spear a few weeks ago while en route to a rally, while last month, 37 supporters were arrested.

Intimidation did not stop people from flocking to CCC rallies, however.

With a message that hearkened back to Zimbabwean strongman Robert Mugabe, Vice President Constantino Chiwenga spoke of the opposition like lice that needed to be “crushed.”

Independent observers, such as Zimbabwe Election Support Network said some candidates’ conduct amounted to vote buying, including food distribution to voters.

Turn-out was higher than usual, especially in the rural areas, as observers noted that large numbers of people required assistance at the polls, which they believed was due to coercion.

This weekend’s polls are seen as a dry run for national elections next year, as the CCC is hoping to defeat the ruling party, lead by President Emmerson Mnangagwa, which has been in power since 1980.

The final results for local government positions proved Advocate Chamisa as the number one contender for the presidency come 2023 and perhaps the undisputed as well.

Mwonzora Failed – Analysts

Political analysts have said the electorate expressed faith in Citizens Coalition for Change (CCC) with the resounding victory the 62 day old party won against two parties whose age are almost close to a century when added together.

Zanu Pf is a culmination of Formerly Zapu and Zanu which became one in 1987 at the signing of the unity accord between the late President Robert Mugabe and his late deputy Father Zimbabwe Joshua Mqabuko Nyongolo Nkomo.

Zanu had Zanla as it’s military wing whilst Zapu had Zipra as its military wing and both liberation parties date back to the 50’s and 60’s which however where born out of other older movements.

The weekends CCC was a blow for both President Emmerson Mnangagwa and Mwonzora who were accused of plotting the downfall of the opposition.

Chamisa’s CCC win fired warning shots for a possible showdown with Mnangagwa in 2023.

Mnangagwa will be seeking his second term after taking over the country in a military coup in 2017.

“It is more than just a by-election. It’s a test between the two. The MPs’ recall was obviously illegal. It is a statement of fact on the part of CCC but a statement of failure for Mwonzora and Mnangagwa,” one analyst Ibbo Mandaza was quoted in the run-up to the bye election polls.

He added: “A CCC win would be a warning to Mnangagwa to say his days are numbered.”

Indeed that message was emphatic following the resounding victory Chamisa’s party had over old adversaries.

The by-elections were a serious test of CCC’s potential to mount a serious challenge to Zanu-PF.

“This by-election is a test of the potential of CCC as a brand and its ability to mount a serious challenge to Zanu PF. Whilst CCC may make inroads into Zanu-PF strongholds it will be difficult currently to dislodge the Zanu-PF rural vote. A bit more time and strategy beyond the by-elections is needed,” a Bulawayo based analyst Dumisani Nkomo was also quoted.

“Indeed these elections are not mere by-elections; they are a dress rehearsal for the 2023 elections.”

To sink or swim was the question in Saturday’s by-elections as the opposition Citizens’ Coalition for Change (CCC) passed with flying colours a stern test of political strength where there was everything to fight for in a vote largely viewed as a precursor of the watershed 2023 polls.

Out of the twenty-eight seats up for grabs over the weekend the CCC grabbed the vacant urban constituencies where the party enjoys considerable support crushing Zanu Pf and Mwonzora’s Mdc-A clinching 19 out of 28.

This election came at a time Zimbabwe was witnessing the rebirth of opposition politics, which two months ago had taken a nosedive amid an onslaught by the authorities to create a one-party state.

Although CCC is just two months old, its popularity was tested in these polls. The win cemented the CCC as the legitimate opposition following months of political combat with MDC-T leader Douglas Mwonzora who now leads a doomed ship evidenced by his loss in every constituency he fielded any candidate.

Zanu-PF claims to have made major strides to reclaim urban seats with Epworth and Mutasa South formerly opposition going to the ruling party. But only Mwonzora Mdc-A can be blamed as Chamisa’s new party romped to victory on its first election.The party has perennially lost to the opposition since 2000. The by-elections served to test the party’s strength in urban areas. A win in some urban centres would have been considered a massive boost ahead of 2023 for ZanuPF but it was only after reported vote rigging incidents took place.

Even losing by small margins will be considered a boost for the ruling party, but the CCC landslide victories was testimony of its strength.

Zanu-PF retained most of its rural seats, but the effectiveness of CCC’s rural mobilisation drive cannot be under scrutiny as it was a game changer with close encounters against ZanuPF.

Had CCC won some seats previously held by Zanu-PF, it will have confirmed that the party has made inroads in rural areas.

A slimmer winning margin for Zanu-PF in rural settings like Gokwe Central, Murehwa South, Chivi South and Mwenezi East was worrisome for ZanuPF ahead of next year’s polls as this entails major inroads for the opposition.

While winning is the major goal of both parties, winning margins was more crucial. Slimmer wins for the opposition in urban areas might have rattled the CCC as it would mean that Zanu-PF has made major inroads.

A win for Zanu-PF in Epworth an urban constituency came as a shocker, analysts say.

President Emmerson Mnangagwa’s Zanu-PF which was looking to win the Kwekwe Central seat which fell vacant following the death of the National Patriotic Front’s Masango Matambanadzo in 2020, failed this test which CCC won instead.

Kwekwe proved a volatile constituency during the campaign period after CCC member Mboneni Ncube was killed while 22 were injured when Zanu-PF militants, known as Al-Shabaab descended on the rally.

This election came amid massive infighting in Zanu-PF with Mnangagwa’s allies in the Midlands accused of destabilising the party in his political citadel.

With the CCC expected to retain urban constituencies after a Parliamentary bloodbath between 2020 and 2021 when MDC-T leader Douglas Mwonzora recalled MPs, analysts expressed concern over the lack of an even playing field.

“The unlevel playing field will be a major factor to deter prospective CCC supporters. It will be without doubt. The voters’ roll is a key element in any election and the voters’ roll will be decisive. The integrity and quality of the voters’ roll will be contested, whatever the outcome,” political analyst Eldred Masunungure said toward the elections.

Zimbabwe’s newest opposition party, the Citizens’ Coalition for Change fared better than all its rivals.

“Citizens came together and achieved a resounding victory for the movement,” said CCC spokesperson Fadzayi Mahere after the results were announced.

The long-awaited by-elections were held for parliamentary and local government seats to fill spots that had been vacant nearly two years. More than 100 local council positions were up on the ballot. The government had postponed the polls in 2020 due to Covid-19.

CCC party leader Nelson Chamisa set up his own party at the end of January after breaking with the Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) in a legal battle over internal politics. The MDC gained no seats in the by-election.

Intimidation, vote-buying
Independent election observers assert that the by-elections were tainted by intimidation and vote-buying. CCC members allege that the ruling party had banned some rallies because there wasn’t enough police to man the event.

Chamisa also said that police had tried to intimidate supporters from going to rallies over the two-month campaign period.

A CCC member was killed with a spear a few weeks ago while en route to a rally, while last month, 37 supporters were arrested.

Intimidation did not stop people from flocking to CCC rallies, however.

With a message that hearkened back to Zimbabwean strongman Robert Mugabe, Vice President Constantino Chiwenga spoke of the opposition like lice that needed to be “crushed.”

Independent observers, such as Zimbabwe Election Support Network said some candidates’ conduct amounted to vote buying, including food distribution to voters.

Turn-out was higher than usual, especially in the rural areas, as observers noted that large numbers of people required assistance at the polls, which they believed was due to coercion.

This weekend’s polls are seen as a dry run for national elections next year, as the CCC is hoping to defeat the ruling party, lead by President Emmerson Mnangagwa, which has been in power since 1980.

The final results for local government positions proved Advocate Chamisa as the number one contender for the presidency come 2023 and perhaps the undisputed as well.